As news organizations scrambled to correct their coverage, for instance, traders at Manifold determined that the IDF probably hadn’t been responsible for whatever had happened on that particular night at the Gaza hospital.[*19] But the bigger concern I have,
As news organizations scrambled to correct their coverage, for instance, traders at Manifold determined that the IDF probably hadn’t been responsible for whatever had happened on that particular night at the Gaza hospital.[*19] But the bigger concern I have,
We harbor a crippling dislike for the abstract. One day in December 2003, when Saddam Hussein was captured, Bloomberg News flashed the following headline at 13:01: U.S. TREASURIES RISE; HUSSEIN CAPTURE MAY NOT CURB TERRORISM. Whenever there is a market move, the news media feel obligated to give the “reason.” Half an hour later, they had to issue a
... See moreNassim Nicholas Taleb • The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto Book 2)
“The intel on this wasn’t 100 percent,” Welch told The New York Times after his arrest.
theatlantic.com • The Prophecies of Q
It is always possible in retrospect to isolate nuggets of truth in a blizzard of contradictory intelligence reports, and marvel that they were not acted upon. At the time it is never so obvious. The English government already possessed by 1586 an exact logistical plan of the proposed Spanish invasion of England. But even as the Armada prepared to s
... See moreAndrew Pettegree • The Invention of News: How the World Came to Know About Itself
When I think about how specific companies, factors, technologies, or even countries function in this spread, it begins to clarify how I should identify the asymmetry that exists. The critical thing about this spread is that many times, there isn’t a high-quality way to quantify the moving parts. There is a reason that people who get hard science de
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