We’re in a confusing period where AI capabilities have vastly outperformed even optimistic projections, but have undershot when it comes to economic impact. It’s not clear why that’s the case.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, we need to rethink how we measure and value AI contributions. The traditional metrics of time saved or costs reduced may miss the more transformative impacts of these systems - their ability to generate novel insights, synthesize complex information, and enable new forms of problem-solving. Moving too quickly... See more

Technology has historically had two countervailing effects on labor—what economists call the “substituting force,” which replaces labor, and the “complementary force,” which augments it. Generative AI optimists argue the complementary force has won out through each subsequent wave of technology. A classic example is the ATM, which should have

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