Trump needs the stock market to go up and the bond market to remain calm. If stocks go down or yields spike, there is no celebration of strong 401ks or low mortgage rates. Markets are his scoreboard. That’s how he measures whether this TV show is working. And currently, it’s not working.

but it has taken off recently as the Trump administration has pursued policies like attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence and threats of a new trade war with Europe that are worrying investors anew.

As a base case, I don’t expect tariff-related turmoil of a magnitude that was experienced in April of this year, but I do think it could pick up a bit relative to the past month or two.

When the stock market is selling off and the bond market is experiencing high volatility, the administration has a strong incentive to put out the fire. However,

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