A New Commodity Bull Market Must Come With a Weak US Dollar
The orange line could occur if a lot of private European and Japanese investors buy un-hedged Treasuries in a risk-off move, which would delay the need for increased U.S. debt monetization by the Federal Reserve. Either way, I expect down for the dollar in the multi-year long run, but the path to get there has these two main outcomes, in my view.
Th
... See moreLyn Alden • The Global Dollar Short Squeeze
My opinion is that should the US dollar fail, or lose in a global conflict, there is a possible competitor to the dollar, but that this isn’t enough to supplant the dollar as the global reserve currency. At least not within the next decade, which is what matters to most reading this. The BRICS system doesn’t have the unique economic requirement, no... See more
Dan • Tech Dollar 2: The War of the Worlds and Fate of the Dollar
Inflation, Interest Rates, The War in Ukraine & Commodity Prices, Labor Markets and The Great Repricing
Compounding Thoughts • Making Sense of the Macro
Why Each Time is Worse
Each of these three dollar spikes over the past five decades caused harm to the global financial system at a lower level of dollar strength than the previous spike, resulting in either a planned correction or a self-correction towards a weaker dollar. There are likely two main reasons for this.
Firstly, global trade accounted f
... See moreLyn Alden • The Global Dollar Short Squeeze
1990’s-2000’s Dollar Spike
During the 1990’s, several emerging markets began to grow substantially, and began taking on dollar-denominated debt while the dollar was comparatively weak.
Meanwhile, the United States enjoyed prosperity from the Baby Boomer demographic bulge in prime working age combined with the dotcom boom and its associated new mega
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