A New Commodity Bull Market Must Come With a Weak US Dollar
Emerging markets are responsible for the majority of marginal economic growth and commodity demand growth in the world, since they collectively have a larger population and have far less per-capita commodity usage as a starting point compared to developed markets. Emerging markets also have a lot of dollar-denominated debt, which is lent to them
... See moreLyn Alden • Deep Dive: Emerging Markets
Go to @RealVision and watch macro legends like @RaoulGMI@BittelJulien@AndreasSteno & @Jamie1Coutts discuss this in detail all the time.
My favorites?
1) Raoul Pal & Julien Bittel's latest update youtube.com/live/_7yuo6JRe
2) An all-time classic, The Dollar Milkshake Theory by @SantiagoAuFundyoutube.com/watch?... See more
Paul Guerra • Tweet
1990’s-2000’s Dollar Spike
During the 1990’s, several emerging markets began to grow substantially, and began taking on dollar-denominated debt while the dollar was comparatively weak.
Meanwhile, the United States enjoyed prosperity from the Baby Boomer demographic bulge in prime working age combined with the dotcom boom and its associated new
... See moreLyn Alden • The Global Dollar Short Squeeze
Why Each Time is Worse
Each of these three dollar spikes over the past five decades caused harm to the global financial system at a lower level of dollar strength than the previous spike, resulting in either a planned correction or a self-correction towards a weaker dollar. There are likely two main reasons for this.
Firstly, global trade accounted
... See moreLyn Alden • The Global Dollar Short Squeeze
Under the current global monetary system that came into effect in 1971, the dollar has had three major cycles of weakness and strength, and each one of these cycles of strength has caused a global short squeeze, leading to financial crises, and impeding growth until resolved. Nations that have the least foreign-exchange reserves and/or the most
... See more