One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening. This syndrome is often associated with very precise-seeming predictions that are not at all accurate.

• we can’t confidently predict the end of the world,


• we’d have no idea what to do if we knew the world would end,


• the things we’d do to gird for the end of the world would be disastrous if it didn’t end, and


• most of the

The best way to navigate that uncertainty is not to run from it, but to accept it. Investors tend to fall into one of two groups: Those who think they know what's going to happen next and act on their supposed insights, and those who admittedly don't understand what's going to happen next and choose to sit on the sidelines. Neither is the sign of a