I thought I should comment on these developments and the outlook, and the result was a memo called Nobody Knows, published four days later. I affirmed my ignorance of the future as usual, but to an even greater degree given that all prior expectations had been upended. Nobody knew – especially me – whether the spiral could be arrested.... See more

There was nothing anyone could say they “knew,” and that included me. I was limited to gaming out my conclusions, which were as follows:

• we can’t confidently predict the end of the world,


• we’d have no idea what to do if we knew the world would end,


• the things we’d do to gird for the end of the world would be disastrous if it didn’t end, and


• most of the

... See more

The final question is whether "TAM dreaming" can translate into dollars and cents in terms of valuation and execution. Forecasts have only one thing in common; they're all wrong. But appreciating directional size for a market can impact the equation.