Bernardo Salazar

Avoid algorithmic rabbit holes, because they will dull your exposure to weird signals and trap you in a bubble. To spot anomalies, you need to escape your Instagram feed and FYP page. Don’t let social media platforms shape how you see the world!

"I'm glad Peter Jackson had a movie to look at—I never did. And certainly there's a lot to learn from watching any movie, both its mistakes and when it works. So he had a little easier time than I did, and a lot better budget."[31]

In the world of trend research, we are traditionally taught to be on the lookout for ‘weak signals’ - small, low-frequency indicators that hint at a potential shift in culture. And while scanning for these weak signals is a fundamental part of the process, it’s easy to get stuck in a pattern of only noticing evidence that confirms our preconceived... See more

The argument that Venezuela would become an ungovernable, Haiti-like failed state after Maduro falls is equally lazy. Armed para-state groups do operate inside the country, but mostly in rural border regions and the south — far from cities or seats of government power. It is unlikely they could challenge a post-Maduro administration backed by... See more

An ordinary Venezuelan won’t skip a visit to SAIME to renew its passport just because Maduro’s state isn’t legitimate. They won’t ignore a fine or tell a police officer they have no authority because the state they serve is illegitimate. They’ll go to SAIME because only the state can issue a valid passport. They’ll obey the officer because he still... See more

An ordinary Venezuelan won’t skip a visit to SAIME to renew its passport just because Maduro’s state isn’t legitimate. They won’t ignore a fine or tell a police officer they have no authority because the state they serve is illegitimate. They’ll go to SAIME because only the state can issue a valid passport. They’ll obey the officer because he still... See more

Sure, the legitimacy argument has served to sanction chavista actors and claim legal control over foreign assets. But as a political tool, it has failed to drive real change. The theory embraced by some opposition lawyers and advisors was straightforward: the force of law comes from its legitimacy—that is, the justification or reasoning that... See more