Benji

• However, the framework, while compelling, confuses a narrative convenience with a law of nature. And even more interestingly, the belief of the presence of the barbell theory reflexively enhances the barbell nature of any situation, even if the outcome of converging to either side of the barbell rationally yields a worse outcome than simply being “average.”

• I call this shaded area ‘voluntary loss,’ the opportunity cost we accept when we force a world of nuance into a binary frame, and in doing so, forfeit the steady gains of the middle. Admittedly, this is a reductive abstraction, intended solely to illuminate the underlying principle.

• Critically, assuming a barbell-shaped reality in situations that more accurately reflect a normal distribution can lead to suboptimal decisions. If moderate success is indeed common and valuable, ignoring it for a slim chance at extremes is mathematically irrational and practically disadvantageous.

• Barbell theory is not merely a description of the world; it is an incantation that, once believed, reflexively shapes reality in its image. The more we insist that only extremes matter, the more we engineer systems—investment structures, cultural algorithms, even personal ambitions—that reward only the outliers and starve the center. In this way, the myth becomes self-fulfilling: the middle ground is not lost to entropy, but actively dismantled by our collective refusal to see its worth.

• But what happens when the underlying conditions shift? When interest rates rise and capital becomes expensive again? When does antitrust action fragment platform monopolies? Network effects and attention capture endure, but their contours shift. Influence pools in unexpected corners. New gatekeepers emerge—platforms, personalities, algorithms—redrawing the boundaries of power. The barbell world was built on a foundation of cheap money, amplifying specific types of network effects. As those financial conditions change, the same underlying forces may reward different strategies.

• The evidence points in two directions. We may be witnessing a permanent structural shift, where technology has irreversibly concentrated power and returns. We can also believe that we’re in a particular phase of a longer cycle. The post-war boom of suburban businesses, regional newspapers, and mid-market companies was once considered the "golden age" of moderate success, coinciding with regulated markets and geographically constrained competition. The current barbell era emerged when global digital networks removed those constraints. But regulation and competition patterns are already shifting again.

https://www.a16z.news/p/prediction-the-successor-to-postmodernism