What Jerry is talking about is not adverse selection. It’s the second way of increasing convexity: funding the far-out-there-ideas, the Big If True ones. It’s one of the reasons I love the general venture zeitgeist around deep tech right now. If crazy bets like underwater energy storage, transformer-specialised chips, or tiny semi fabs succeed,... See more
A thought about careers: As I think about the careers of some close friends I admire as well as my own path: Some of the boldest and most rewarding career moves I’ve seen friends make were among the most misunderstood - true orthogonal head-scratchers. And yet, some of these folks built companies or took on leadership positions that ultimately... See more
The iPhone didn’t happen in a vacuum. Apple needed to learn to make low-power devices with the iPod; flash memory needed to become viable at an accessible price point; Samsung needed to make a good enough processor; 3G networking needed to be rolled out; the iTunes Music Store needed to provide the foundation for the App... See more
Average loss ratio. Some sectors are higher risk than others. For the past couple of decades, for example, social media has been particularly challenging, with Meta acquiring or suffocating insurgents. If the sector you operate in has a high loss ratio, you may want greater diversification.