Abie Cohen

The most contrarian bet in venture capital right now is Thrive’s investment in OpenAI at an $80B valuation.

Before you bring your pitchforks against me or wonder if I’ve gone crazy, let me explain.

You can be contrarian in two ways:1

1. Having a different POV than the mainstream


2. Having 100% conviction in the mainstream POV and doubling down on it in a way

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But I began to enjoy fundraising and the minute I did more people said yes.

Everyone prefers a real conversation to a pitch where you are simply a number on a CRM.

AI is powerful but taste-blind. It can make anything but it has no idea what's actually worth making.

But AI + your taste? That's the game-changer.

The more AI can execute, the more your eye for what's interesting – your ability to discern and curate what matters and why – becomes everything.

But the window doesn’t last long. As Paik thinks of it, “each time a new shift occurs, it is analogous to the formation of an unstable radioactive isotope. The radioactivity throws off a huge amount of energy in the form of capturable enterprise value, but is subject to half-life decay. Over time, the isotope decays and eventually becomes lead, at ... See more

Average loss ratio. Some sectors are higher risk than others. For the past couple of decades, for example, social media has been particularly challenging, with Meta acquiring or suffocating insurgents. If the sector you operate in has a high loss ratio, you may want greater diversification.