Arthur Andreev
@aandreev
Arthur Andreev
We want to show what we have in us; then, if we fall, we will truly have lived to the full.
Junger - “Fire”
A startup can’t be expected to have moats in the early days, but it should have a strategy in place that gives it the best chance of having them in place by the time the uncertainty window runs out.
Packy McCormick • In Defense of Strategy
All that is of no help whatever, for suddenly, from having been a thinking being, he becomes a feeling one, a plaything of phantoms against which even the sharpest reason is a powerless weapon. Those are factors we take care to deny because they arere unreliable. But in the moment.of experience all denial is futile; then every unknown is possessed
... See moreFrom Junger’s “Fire”
This is the category of person who likes religious ideas when other people believe in them, who wants religion to exist for its civilization-shaping qualities without personally accepting any of its impositions, who draws pleasure from what the late Richard John Neuhaus called “regretful unbelief,” who only really believes in belief .
Ross Douthat: Everyone Should Believe in God
SUMMARY:
1. Challenging Common Explanations for Crime
The essay starts by questioning popular beliefs that crime is caused mainly by poverty, criminals themselves, or even climate. Instead, it suggests that the structure and psychology of a society’s elite have a much bigger impact on how that society functions—including its crime rates.
2. Elite Formation and the “Marshmallow Test”
Modern elites are selected through a series of tests and hurdles, much like the famous “marshmallow test” (a psychological experiment about delayed gratification).
In today’s world, this means excelling in academics, prestigious institutions, and professional environments.
The process selects not just for intelligence or ability, but for a specific psychological trait: the Desire To Pass Tests—a drive to please authority figures and comply with rules, sometimes to the point of self-denial or unhappiness.
3. Desire vs. Ability
The essay distinguishes between the Desire To Pass Tests (willingness to comply and work hard) and the Ability To Pass Tests (natural talent or intelligence).
Modern systems, especially in places like San Francisco (dominated by tech and bureaucracy), tend to select more for desire/compliance than for raw ability.
4. Consequences of Selecting for Compliance
When a society’s elite is chosen for their ability to comply and pass tests, you get a culture that values non-violence, de-escalation, and consensus.
This can lead to a kind of passivity or aversion to direct conflict—even when it might be necessary.
The essay uses the example of San Francisco’s high property crime rates: the local elite’s aversion to violence and preference for compliance means they tolerate certain crimes rather than respond with force.
5. Contrast with Other Elites (e.g., Venice)
In contrast, historical elites in places like Venice were selected for their willingness and ability to use violence (because their economy depended on maritime trade and defense).
The dominant industry of a city or region shapes the kind of elite it produces, which in turn shapes the city’s culture and approach to conflict.
6. Shame, Guilt, and Social Control
The essay explores how compliance-based elites are motivated by shame (social emotion) and guilt (personal emotion).
This shapes how they respond to crime and disorder: they feel responsible for avoiding conflict and may blame themselves for being victimized, rather than demanding a forceful response.
7. Case Study: San Francisco’s Crime Crackdown
When San Francisco temporarily cracked down on crime for a high-profile international event, crime rates dropped sharply.
This was motivated not by a change in values, but by a sense of shame—wanting to appear orderly to outsiders (like China’s leader Xi Jinping).
The essay suggests that the city’s usual tolerance for property crime is a result of its elite’s compliance-oriented psychology.
8. Big Picture: Economics Shapes Elites, Elites Shape Society
The way a city or society generates wealth determines how its elites are selected.
The character of those elites—whether they’re compliant test-passers or aggressive risk-takers—shapes the society’s culture, politics, and even its tolerance for violence or crime.
9. No Free Lunch
Any approach has trade-offs: a society that selects for compliance and non-violence may tolerate more property crime, while one that selects for aggression may have more direct violence.
The essay isn’t advocating for one system over another, but highlighting how deeply these selection mechanisms shape society.
It’s my favorite strategy book because it was so easy to put into practice, and because I recognized so many of the characteristics of bad strategy. Here are a few:
- Mistaking Goals for Strategy : A classic. “Our strategy is to grow revenue by 50% while improving gross margins by 200 bps.” Cool cool... how though?
- Fluff : Using buzzwords and jargon
Packy McCormick • In Defense of Strategy
This is all sort of convoluted and inefficient. If you are getting real money from trade finance firms by just sending them electronic files and saying “here’s an invoice,” sure you might send the same invoice to two different trade finance firms, or three, or 20, but why do you need an invoice at all? I mean, you need to send them something; you... See more
Interesting fraud - opportunity in trade finance software space?