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2013、2017、2021，每一个大牛市，都发生在美国M2年增率下降的阶段。
而目前，美国M2年增率仍然处于上升阶段。
➤M2才是真正的流动性指标
利率也好、QT或QE只是流动性的政策起点。
M2同时反应货币政策和社会经济，M2才是真正的流动性指标。
2017年在加息，但是M2在增长。除了货币政策的时滞性以外，实体经济的繁荣使基础货币在经济中更快速的循环，同样会促进M2的增长。
➤M2从加速到减速后才进入尾声
M2年增率的增长，意味着流动性的加速增长。
M2年增率的下降，意味着流动性的减速增长。
当M2的增长从加速到减速，才是增长的尾声。
为了严谨还要说一下，虽然美国M2不等于全球流动性，但它具有代表性甚至一定的主导性。
所以我才会坚定不移的说牛没来。甚至，我们可能还... See more
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