Sublime
An inspiration engine for ideas
To represent a significance level of 0.05, I’ll shade 5% of the distribution furthest from the null value.
Jim Frost • Hypothesis Testing: An Intuitive Guide for Making Data Driven Decisions
if you’re doing a PhD in a quantitative discipline you should print this out and hang it above your desk
https://t.co/2CPDxiroJB... See more
GPT-5 is state of the art at reasoning. In SimpleBench, it passed 90% of all questions (9 out of 10). I have access to it via Copilot, and it uses Reasoning mode.
@btibor91
@patience_cave
@kimmonismus
@slow_developer
@RafaCrackYT
@legit_api___LINEBREA... See more
Fun graphic on $META from the Rowan Street annual letter (a hedge fund that printed a 102.6% net return in 2023): Shows how non-linear the path to good returns can be and how conviction pays off. https://t.co/jWQGVSc7LS... See more
Michael Dempseyx.comOldies but goldies: D.G Krige, A statistical approach to some mine valuations and allied problems at the Witwatersrand, 1951. Kriging (aka Wiener interpolation) accounts for uncertainty in kernel interpolation using a Gaussian process. https://t.co/Q2lWOt22yJ... See more
Gabriel Peyréx.comAn IQ of 130 is two SDs above the mean, which is a convenient round number that was initially used to define gifted by Louis Terman and it stuck. It cuts off the top 2.3% of a normal distribution. It's arbitrary, but it's also broad enough to include almost everyone whom teachers consider to have strikingly high intellectual ability. Put in terms ... See more
Charles Murrayx.com
We've created a demo of an AI that can predict the future at a superhuman level (on par with groups of human forecasters working together).
Consequently I think AI forecasters will soon automate most prediction markets.
demo: https://t.co/r5NlsnAvG4
blog:... See more