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Makers and Takers: The Economics of the Kalshi Prediction Market
ucd.ie
$ATVI solid r/r here with late July timeframe on FTC ruling. Even if the deal falls through not so sure the stock trades off in the ST with sector trends and Diablo early launch performance. Spread pays ~18%, can lever it up through call verticals if confident on merger close. https://t.co/k9wd5d5opz
the risk that some bidders (even high-value bidders) will not play if the field is so wide open. The latter risk is particularly likely if bidders must incur costsโreal or intangibleโto make a bid.
Guhan Subramanian โข Dealmaking: The New Strategy of Negotiauctions (Second Edition)
What if I told you there was a way to predict the $ARB airdrop BEFORE it happened? ๐
A way to track the most active whales ๐ณ on @arbitrum
Here's how: (epic dashboard incoming ๐)
1/11 https://t.co/zMnaq3TXfx
We're seeing a huge inflow of Arbitrum gainz
Each altcoin doing 2x - 3x over the past week
If you're under-exposed on Arbitrum coins, this guide is for you
๐งต๐๐จ๐ฉ ๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐ข๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ฒ๐ฌ
(From a guy who have been tracking Arb Eco for the past... See more
In Ec10 we should them 15 million data points from sports betting from @andrewlilley_au comparing the prediction market probability to the outcomes.
And guess what: if you collect 100 markets with a 6% chance of a team winning and look at the results you'll see them win 6 times. https://t.co/ZeD0Vfrbyu
For example, csidata.com uses only price back adjustment, but with an optional additive constant to prevent prices from going negative, while tickdata.com allows you the option of choosing price versus return back-adjustment, but there is no option for adding a constant to prevent negative prices.
Ernie Chan โข Algorithmic Trading
