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Big Peace/War Cycle

Ray Dalio • Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail

“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

Howard Marks, Paul Johnson • The Most Important Thing Illuminated

For example, if public debt is compounding higher at a 7-8% annual clip, then liquidity needs to keep pace to avoid financial crises. Think of it as the ‘cost’ of stability. This rate of monetary inflation represents a return hurdle for other assets because it measures the rate of debasement of paper money. Hence, investors need to figure which ass... See more

Michael Howell • The Debt-Liquidity Spiral

Inflation, Interest Rates, The War in Ukraine & Commodity Prices, Labor Markets and The Great Repricing

Compounding Thoughts • Making Sense of the Macro

While the case for long-term investment has tended to centre around simple mathematical advantages such as reduced (frictional) costs and fewer decisions leading (hopefully) to fewer mistakes, the real advantage to this approach, in our opinion, comes from asking more valuable questions.

Edward Chancellor • Capital Returns

Global Asset Allocation: A Survey of the World’s Top Asset Allocation Strategies

Meb Faber

amazon.com

Cover of Global Asset Allocation: A Survey of the World’s Top Asset Allocation Strategies

To be sure, small value stocks are risky little suckers. Even the entire index (available to you in neat ETF form) is more volatile than any conservative investor may feel comfortable with. But as part — a very handsome part — of a diversified portfolio, a small value ETF can be a beautiful thing indeed. If you knew the past was going to repeat, su

Russell Wild • Exchange-Traded Funds for Dummies

To avoid data mining the trend‐trading strategies I'll review will be run over my P24 portfolio, which contains markets that have been independently and objectively selected based on their diversity and liquidity.

Brent Penfold • The Universal Tactics of Successful Trend Trading: Finding Opportunity in Uncertainty (Wiley Trading)

was his opinion that professional investors prefer to devote their energies not to estimating intrinsic values, but rather to analyzing how the crowd of investors is likely to behave in the future and how during periods of optimism they tend to build their hopes into castles in the air. The