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“feudal lust for expanded revenue”
Peter Turchin, Sergey A. Nefedov • Secular Cycles
hand, a synthetic theory that incorporates both of these (and some other) processes may provide us with a viable hypothesis that can be tested with data.
Peter Turchin, Sergey A. Nefedov • Secular Cycles
Our explicit focus is on agrarian societies, that is, those in which more than 50 percent of the population (and typically above 80–90 percent) is involved in agriculture.
Peter Turchin, Sergey A. Nefedov • Secular Cycles
What we need is a synthetic theory that encompasses both demographic mechanisms (with the associated economic consequences) and power relations (surplusextraction mechanisms).
Peter Turchin, Sergey A. Nefedov • Secular Cycles
States are not simply created and manipulated by dominant classes; they are agents in their own right, and they compete with the elites in appropriating resources from the economy.
Peter Turchin, Sergey A. Nefedov • Secular Cycles
Thus, we can use trends in higher education as an index of intraelite competition (Goldstone 1991:123).
Peter Turchin, Sergey A. Nefedov • Secular Cycles
It is curious that both sides in the Brenner debate almost entirely ignored the role of the state.
Peter Turchin, Sergey A. Nefedov • Secular Cycles
The declining incomes of the majority of aristocrats have two important consequences: intensifying oppression of the peasants by the elites and increasing intraelite competition for scarce resources.
Peter Turchin, Sergey A. Nefedov • Secular Cycles
for a new secular cycle to get going, the pressures of the general population on resources and of the elites on commoners must be substantially reduced from their precrisis levels.