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relationship of earnings and stock prices—the correlation’s very low.
W. Brian Arthur • Complexity Economics: Proceedings of the Santa Fe Institute's 2019 Fall Symposium
David Aldous • Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. The Black Swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Random House, 2007.
The core of John Kelly’s philosophy of risk can be stated without math. It is that even unlikely events must come to pass eventually. Therefore, anyone who accepts small risks of losing everything will lose everything, sooner or later. The ultimate compound return rate is acutely sensitive to fat tails.
William Poundstone • Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street
Seth Klarman • Seth A. Klarman remarks at MIT
The year before John Paulson decided, in the spring of 2009, to give investors in his hedge funds the option of having their returns measured and paid in gold, he had made a fortune for himself and his clients by betting on the value of America's housing markets and banks. Now he was betting that an even more basic product than housing — money itse
... See moreMichael Green • In Gold We Trust? The Future of Money in an Age of Uncertainty (Kindle Single)
Given an uncertain future, anything that increases your cost of change also increases your risk.
Mark Schwartz • War and Peace and IT: Business Leadership, Technology, and Success in the Digital Age
In my Far from Equilibrium Economics and Finance course, the first two articles I have my PhD students read are Friedrich von Hayek’s Economics and Knowledge (1937) and The Use of Knowledge in Society (1945) , von Hayek’s classic papers that describe a market economy as a solution to the division of knowledge problem. The third article I have them
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