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An Allocator’s Manifesto: Why is every single fund top quartile?
Remember this: the Gaussian–bell curve variations face a headwind that makes probabilities drop at a faster and faster rate as you move away from the mean, while “scalables,” or Mandelbrotian variations, do not have such a restriction. That’s pretty much most of what you need to know.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto Book 2)
It is far easier to figure out if something is fragile than to predict the occurrence of an event that may harm it. Fragility can be measured;
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (Incerto Book 3)
The Unconstrained Vision of Nassim Taleb - Ryan H. Murphy
independent.orgMost new things fail. Objects or actions which survive for generations must be good at serving some hidden purpose…they correspond with something deep in our nature…
-Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Incerto 4-Book Bundle




Nature loves small errors (without which genetic variations are impossible), humans don’t—hence when you rely on human judgment you are at the mercy of a mental bias that disfavors antifragility