Sublime
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Investors earn excess returns when they correctly anticipate revisions in expectations for future cash flows. To find mispriced expectations, investors must understand the potential magnitude and return on investment.
Morgan Stanley • Market-Expected Return on Investment Bridging Accounting and Valuation
both cases, psychology proved critical. Napoleon’s delusion was to believe in military strategy and underestimate the role of morale; his generals failed to appreciate that Russian citizens battling for their lives on their home soil had far greater incentive to fight than did a poilu from Paris yearning for the Champs Elysées. The LTCM
... See moreEugene Linden • The Mind of Wall Street: A Legendary Financier on the Perils of Greed and the Mysteries of the Market
Under-appreciated book. Quote: “The best that can be said today is that the market is not good at predicting Competitive Advantage Periods and frequently errs in both underestimating and overestimating the speed of change. Scrutiny of industry structure and sector dynamics can generate super-normal returns from industry selection because not enough... See more
What separated the good from the great investors had little to do with their analytical tools but a great deal to do with how they made decisions.
Michael Mauboussin • Michael Mauboussin — How Great Investors Make Decisions, Harnessing The Wisdom (vs. Madness) of Crowds, Lessons from Race Horses, and More (#659) - The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
Market dynamics trump individual performance. (I realize how awful that sounds.) Someone of average talent at Google has done better over the past decade than someone great at General Motors.
Scott Galloway • The Algebra of Wealth: A Simple Formula for Success
Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions
The article discusses the identification and development of superforecasters to enhance probabilistic predictions in various fields, highlighting their distinctive cognitive abilities, task-specific skills, motivation, and the impact of enriched environments on performance.
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