Sublime
An inspiration engine for ideas
This approach to prediction is general. You can apply it whenever you need to predict a quantitative variable, such as GPA, profit from an investment, or the growth of a company. The approach builds on your intuition, but it moderates it, regresses it toward the mean. When you have good reasons to trust the accuracy of your intuitive prediction—a
... See moreDaniel Kahneman • Thinking, Fast and Slow
I'll enjoy watching the West drop its shackles. But I no longer expect this to be a game-changer.
My main reason to underrate China was… esoteric: ignoring population stratification. I thought they're an avg 104 IQ nation. That they'll be *on par* in producing elite performers. https://t.co/80Z3oHaxa5
Forecasting newsletter #5/2025: Southeast Asian gangs, adj.news, JurisTrade.
Nuño Sempereopen.substack.com
I had prepared image below by collecting the model card and benchmark scores from the Google DeepMind blog. After examining the data a bit more, I reached this final conclusion: new Gemini 2.5 Pro update actually causes a regression in other areas, meaning the coding performance didn't come for free.
Areas of Improved... See more
BREAKING: Gemini 2.5 Pro is now #1 on the Arena leaderboard - the largest score jump ever (+40 pts vs Grok-3/GPT-4.5)! 🏆
Tested under codename "nebula"🌌, Gemini 2.5 Pro ranked #1🥇 across ALL categories and UNIQUELY #1 in Math, Creative Writing, Instruction Following, Longer Query, and... See more
As someone who has studied systems, AI, intelligence, and a slew of other things, what most people don't get is just how big of a difference just 10 IQ points makes.
An IQ of 110 means that you can basically succeed at most jobs and have a decently productive life. This is your typical developer or six figure office... See more
David Shapiro ⏩x.comAsymmetries: Finally, you need to think about something we might call “metaprobability”—the probability that your probability estimates themselves are any good.
Rhiannon Beaubien • The Great Mental Models Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts
First Update To LiveBench AI Is Now Live
We have made our first of several updates to LiveBench AI to reduce benchmark maxing.
The first update introduces several new unseen questions, and scores for almost all the top models have changed substantially. The previous version had a lot of... See more
