Sublime

adly, Manifold does not produce particularly good predictions. In last year’s ACX contest, it performed worse than simply averaging predictions from the same number of people who took part in each market. Their calibration, while good by human standards, has a clear systematic bias towards predicting things will happen when they don’t (Yes bias).... See more

OpenAI had a significant lead from summer 2022 through spring 2024 when Google and Anthropic caught up to GPT-4. 7ish quarters of dominance as a result of being the first to aggressively bet on the traditional scaling “law” for pre-training. Being first to reasoning with o1 only led to a few months of... See more

How accurate is Polymarket? 89% accurate 1 week out, but in the final 4 hours it jumps to 95% accuracy right before resolution. Fun fact. 78% of Polymarket events resolve "NO" meaning markets consistently overprice unlikely events. https://t.co/Q31yiescbv

We are going to reach some serious levels of mental retardation for memecoins this cycle Think of the Memecoin ecosystem as essentially a Skill-based Global Lottery Platform. Players get to decide which lottery brand they want to buy tickets in, but the payouts and odds aren't the same. That's where the skill comes in -... See more

I simulated 100,000 people to show how often people are "thrice-exceptional": Smart, stable, and exceptionally hard-working. I've highlighted these people in red in this chart: https://t.co/lh0NN3ypDh

I was given early access to Grok 3 earlier today, making me I think one of the first few who could run a quick vibe check. Thinking ✅ First, Grok 3 clearly has an around state of the art thinking model ("Think" button) and did great out of the box on my Settler's of Catan... See more