Sublime

Last is the power of stories over statistics. “Housing prices in relation to median incomes are now above their historic average and typically mean revert” is a statistic. “Jim just made $500,000 flipping homes and can now retire early and his wife thinks he’s amazing” is a story. And it’s way more persuasive in the moment.

companies have a strong incentive to exploit behavioral biases, including availability, unrealistic optimism, and anchoring.

A fantastic story about the father of modern portfolio theory, Harry Markowitz, brings this to life. Markowitz considered the optimal mix of assets for his personal portfolio but found it all too complicated to wrap his prodigious brain around. “I should have computed the historical co-variances of the asset classes and drawn an efficient frontier,

Another common error in the psychology literature concerns what is called “mental accounting.” The Thorp, Kelly, and Shannon school of information theory requires that, for an investment strategy to be ergodic and eventually capture the return of the market, agents increase their risks as they are winning, but contract after losses, a technique cal