Sublime

Felix Zulauf's big market calls for 2024 & beyond: - S&P 500 makes minor new highs in Q1 2024 (4900) but this will be a "trap" that will suck in too much capital at the wrong price & cause a "big" decline. Oct 2022 lows (<3600) very much in play - Bond rally likely to continue - for now. But... See more

I usually love @RayDalio but I think this is completely wrong. 1) The change in economic policy is to incentive more free market competition in industrial focus areas and remove sprawling bureaucracy that impedes effective decision making, otherwise we cannot build infrastructure anymore. 2... See more

BESSENT: “Over the medium term, which is what we’re focused on, it’s a focus on Main Street. Wall Street’s done great, Wall Street can continue to do fine, but we have a focus on small business and consumers. We are going to rebalance the economy.” Short-term pain is their plan. https://t.co/HKHCEiB9O7

I believe that long-term rates, e.g, 30-year rates, will rise further from here. As such, we remain short bonds through the ownership of swaptions. The world is a structurally different place than it was. The peace dividend is no more. The long-term deflationary effects of outsourcing production to China are no more. W... See more