Sublime

The difference is profound and lies in the absence of a model of reality.

Bayes’s rule as a way to update our belief in a particular hypothesis.

There are three basic types of junctions,

causal explanations, not dry facts, make up the bulk of our knowledge,

A Bayesian statistician, on the other hand, would say, “Wait a minute. We also need to take into account our prior knowledge about the coin.” Did it come from the neighborhood grocery or a shady gambler?

statistics became a model-blind data-reduction enterprise,

some queries may not be answerable under the current causal model,

the belief a person attributes to S after discovering T is never lower than the degree of belief that person attributes to S AND T before discovering

Now there is one back-door path X A B D E Y.