Sublime
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A superior analyst is one whose gains . . . are consistently greater than those of the market. Consistency is the crucial word here, since for any given short period of time . . . some people will do much better than the market and some will do much worse. Unfortunately, by this criterion, this author does not qualify as a superior analyst. There i
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Richard Zeckhauser in his famous essay, “Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable.”
Gautam Baid • The Joys of Compounding: The Passionate Pursuit of Lifelong Learning, Revised and Updated (Heilbrunn Center for Graham & Dodd Investing Series)
Public markets reward predictability.
Patrick Vernon • Venture Capital Strategy: How to Think Like a Venture Capitalist
Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street
amazon.com
He has pledged to donate everything he earns over ~$36K per year to whatever charities he believes will be most effective.
Timothy Ferriss • Tools Of Titans: The Tactics, Routines, and Habits of Billionaires, Icons, and World-Class Performers
“Where wisdom once was, quantification will now be.
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Much of the most thoughtful work on the use and abuse of statistical models and the proper role of prediction comes from people in the medical profession.88 That is not to say there is nothing on the line when an economist makes a prediction, or a seismologist does. But because of medicine’s intimate connection with life and death, doctors tend to
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
“It is impossible to find any domain in which humans clearly outperformed crude extrapolation algorithms, less still sophisticated statistical ones.”17