Sublime
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A superior analyst is one whose gains . . . are consistently greater than those of the market. Consistency is the crucial word here, since for any given short period of time . . . some people will do much better than the market and some will do much worse. Unfortunately, by this criterion, this author does not qualify as a superior analyst. There i
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

As he saw it, the benefits to the country outweighed the potential personal costs of contaminated water. Every industrial practice came with risks.
Eliza Griswold • Amity and Prosperity: One Family and the Fracturing of America

Note that the economist Robert Lucas dealt a blow to econometrics by arguing that if people were rational then their rationality would cause them to figure out predictable patterns from the past and adapt, so that past information would be completely useless for predicting the future (the argument, phrased in a very mathematical form, earned him th
... See moreNassim Nicholas Taleb • Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
Sam Altman · March 16 • Moore's Law for Everything
Just a moment...
mercatus.orgas Raghuram Rajan puts it, “What is particularly alarming is that the risk taking may well have been in the best ex ante interests of their shareholders.”