Sublime

The core of John Kelly’s philosophy of risk can be stated without math. It is that even unlikely events must come to pass eventually. Therefore, anyone who accepts small risks of losing everything will lose everything, sooner or later. The ultimate compound return rate is acutely sensitive to fat tails.

people have a general tendency to stick with their current situation.

In an environment where the greatest source of wealth will be the ideas you have in your head rather than physical capital alone, anyone who thinks clearly will potentially be rich.

There is reasonably strong evidence for what Thaler calls No Free Lunch—it is difficult (although not literally impossible) for any investor to beat the market over the long-term. Theoretically appealing opportunities may be challenging to exploit in practice because of transaction costs, risks, and other constraints on trading. Statistical pattern

From the perspective of choice architecture, defined-benefit plans have an important virtue: they are forgiving to even the most mindless of Humans.

chapter’s final mistake: leaning too much on either formula-based approaches or the wisdom of crowds. While computers and collectives can be very useful, they do not warrant blind faith.

no more need to have them enforce our contracts.