Sublime

As psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer and his colleagues have documented, there are many situations where heuristics make better predictions than more complicated methods. This is called the less-is-more effect.7

companies have a strong incentive to exploit behavioral biases, including availability, unrealistic optimism, and anchoring.

Non-Ergodic : When group probabilities don’t apply to singular events. If 100 people play Russian Roulette once, the odds of dying might be, say, 10%. But if one person plays Russian Roulette 100 times, the odds are dying are practically 100%.

Intelligence is not only the ability to reason; it is also the ability to find relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed.

It’s called the description-experience gap. In study after study, people fail to internalize numeric rules, making decisions based on things like “gut feeling” and “intuition” and “what feels right” rather than based on the data they are shown. We need to train ourselves to see the world in a probabilistic light—and even then, we often ignore the