Sublime
An inspiration engine for ideas
Anscombe’s Quartet : Four sets of numbers that look identical on paper (mean average, variance, correlation, etc.) but look completely different when graphed. Describes a situation where exact calculations don’t offer a good representation of how the world works.
Morgan Housel • 100 Little Ideas
Non-Ergodic : When group probabilities don’t apply to singular events. If 100 people play Russian Roulette once, the odds of dying might be, say, 10%. But if one person plays Russian Roulette 100 times, the odds are dying are practically 100%.
Morgan Housel • 100 Little Ideas
we often just use the data people put in front of us. I would argue we don’t do a good job of saying, ‘Is this the data that we want to make the decision we need to make?’”
(Journalist) David Epstein • Range: How Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World
In statistical distributions with thick tails, as Nassim Taleb says, the tail wags the dog . The relevant information is all in the tails, not in the body. Why would an allocator want statistical estimators to ignore the tail and instead overweight the center of the distribution, which is predominantly noise?
An Allocator’s Manifesto: Why is every single fund top quartile?
