Sublime
An inspiration engine for ideas
The Unaccountability Machine by Dan Davies is a fantastic book, which argues that people create these models because if you can reduce decision-making to an algorithm, or a formula, or a process, or a procedure, you avoid the risk of blame. Computer says no, effectively.
Instinctively, people love to codify things, and make them numerical, and turn ... See more
Instinctively, people love to codify things, and make them numerical, and turn ... See more
Adam Grant • Are We Too Impatient to Be Intelligent?
André Chaperon
andrechaperon.com
And some forecasts are meant to comfort
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Behavioral inefficiencies may be at once the most persistent source of opportunity and the most difficult to capture
Michael Mauboussin • Who Is On the Other Side?
commanders were to tell subordinates what their goal is but not how to achieve it.
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
he created a database containing hundreds of information sources—from the New York Times to obscure blogs—that are tagged by their ideological orientation, subject matter, and geographical origin, then wrote a program that selects what he should read next using criteria that emphasize diversity.
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
“Where wisdom once was, quantification will now be.
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
“always predict no change” or “predict the recent rate of change.” Still,
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Good Judgment Project.