Sublime
An inspiration engine for ideas
I believe that long-term rates, e.g, 30-year rates, will rise further from here. As such, we remain short bonds through the ownership of swaptions.
The world is a structurally different place than it was. The peace dividend is no more. The long-term deflationary effects of outsourcing production to China are no more. W... See more
Bill Ackmanx.com
Howard Marks just went on Bloomberg to share his views on Liberation Day.
Here are his insights on its economic impact and why he thinks US is still the best investment destination.
A thread 🧵 https://t.co/tqvDLGYwjJ
The End of The Beginning
aitkenadvisors.com
OpenAI had a significant lead from summer 2022 through spring 2024 when Google and Anthropic caught up to GPT-4. 7ish quarters of dominance as a result of being the first to aggressively bet on the traditional scaling “law” for pre-training.
Being first to reasoning with o1 only led to a few months of advantage.___LINEB... See more
SUBSCALE IPOs
The Meritech team @MeritechCapital continues to put out some excellent analysis. This one is on IPO scale.
TLDR is that companies with less than $700m annualized revenue underperform after going public. Actually, not just underperform - they have NEGATIVE absolute returns. This... See more
There are some important changes underfoot in private markets:
1. Returns are compressing - few funds are able to consistently achieve the necessary spread over the risk-free rate to justify fees and illiquidity.
2. LPs are segregating bi-modally: 1) a growing group of smaller family office... See more
Chamath Palihapitiyax.comBLOOMBERG'S MOAT & AI FOR FINANCE CO-PILOTS
Look around for a moment and you see an incredible amount of effort to build an "AI for finance" co-pilot. We are working to compile a comprehensive list of these tools: our list is over 50 and growing (we will release this soon), almost all with impressive teams of either for... See more
Brett Caughranx.comGLP1s have added $1T in market cap to Eli and Novo over the last 5 years. That's 3x+ the market cap created by all biopharma startups over the last 30 years combined. This is a bit of an indicment of the biotech startup ecosystem. There are many $1T and even $10T drugs to be invented, we just don't fund them. Through no one persons fault, the biote... See more
Blake Byersx.com