Sublime

今天看到小红书几个理财帖子（我又被封了一个月），说如何定存高利息，投资破房出租还有买国债；但从我的认知，我认为普通人最好最平凡的理财方式就是买美股然后卖Covered calls;特别是那种可以直接从账户里消费的券商，我想不出比这收益更高、风险更低、流动性更强的投资方式。**Pareto optimality；如果你不想动脑筋，你就买QQQ；你想动脑筋，就复制佩洛西，或者做其他研究。克服思维和理财惰性，可能比读一个学位还有用。

其实仔细想想，开年的Stargate和各大公司的Capex其实已经明牌告诉大家了，今年就是半导体大年，甚至比去年还大。4家头部AI公司的 Capex目前已经比2024年的2300亿美元高900亿美元，更别说还有更多参与者大幅提高了AI的基础设施建设投入。 $NVDA $TSM $AVGO $MRVL $CRDO 这些公司的年终表现一定会吓你一跳。

I would absolutely believe it. Second only to overconfidence bias, bettors routinely underestimate the probability of losing runs and magnitude of possible drawdowns. They also fail to understand the difference between EV winners and losers is small. I have just the book for them https://t.co/GbAsBTLlt8

As Jeremy Keith enjoys pointing out, Medium is Ev’s blog and offers RSS feeds and reverse-chronological listings for each guest author.

if you have a full long and healthy marriage, you're going to talk to each other for at 20,000 hours, so having good conversations is a pretty high value thing https://t.co/jUhbqHihMg