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CHAPTER 2 Wanna Bet?
Annie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
CHAPTER 5 Dissent to Win
Annie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Annie Duke, former world champion of poker, teaches us that there’s a huge gap between a good decision and a good outcome. A good decision is based on what we know of the options and the odds. A good outcome happens or it doesn’t: it is a consequence of the odds, not the hidden answer.
Seth Godin • The Practice
Lindsey Vonn,
Annie Duke • Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away
Early in my poker career, my poker group recommended that a way to avoid the effects of self-serving bias when I was losing was to have a preset “loss limit”—if I lost $600 at the stakes I was playing, I would leave the game.
Annie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Yogi Berra said, “You can observe a lot by watching.”
Annie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
CHAPTER 2 Wanna Bet?
Annie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing.
Annie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Re-creating a simplified version of a decision tree puts the actual outcome in its proper context.