Michael Estrin

ddress this question of when does the bubble pop, I would point out that valuations among big tech AI companies are high, but they’re not crazy high . The 24-month forward PE ratio of the Magnificent Seven is 27x. In the year 2000, at the height of the tech bubble, the top 10 stocks traded at 52x forward earnings. So I would say, yes, a bubble is... See more

the top 10% of Americans own 90% of the stock market and make up half of all consumer activity. If the market does go down, say 15%, and the wealthy suddenly feel less wealthy and stop spending, they could trigger a downward economic spiral.

According to Oxford Economics, a consultancy, consumer spending rises and falls by about 14 cents for every dollar change in financial wealth. These changes, in turn, depend more than ever on a few giant firms whose prospects will be shaped by AI.

One last point. In the late 1990s the U.S. economy was growing quite rapidly, around 4 percent a year, and the tech boom was only one factor in that growth. These days underlying growth is only around 2 percent a year, partly because of slow growth in the working-age population, partly because overall productivity growth is slower. And so far this... See more

Furthermore, recovery from the burst tech bubble depended to a large extent on the creation of another bubble, this time in housing

commercial

owever, the U.S. population is sicker in ways that may increase the intensity of care required. OECD data indicate higher U.S. rates of obesity, diabetes, and heart disease, and a larger share of the population with multiple chronic conditions. Recent research has explored the extent to which the U.S. spends relatively less on prevention and public... See more

The U.S. should prioritise establishing centralised price negotiations for pharmaceuticals, similar to systems in Germany and the UK, to reduce drug prices. Implementing value-based care models can also help shif