This is a textbook example of the “Era of the Ideological Investor,” where model-driven fundamental analysis becomes irrelevant once the government emerges as the largest sponsor of idiosyncratic dispersion in capital markets. The path to outperformance is no longer better spreadsheets—it is anticipation
Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions
The article discusses the identification and development of superforecasters to enhance probabilistic predictions in various fields, highlighting their distinctive cognitive abilities, task-specific skills, motivation, and the impact of enriched environments on performance.