Lucas Kohorst
@lucas
days @dcgco nights @adjacent___
Lucas Kohorst
kohor.st
adly, Manifold does not produce particularly good predictions. In last year’s ACX contest, it performed worse than simply averaging predictions from the same number of people who took part in each market. Their calibration, while good by human standards, has a clear systematic bias towards predicting things will happen when they don’t (Yes bias).... See more
Robin • Manifold markets isn’t very good — EA Forum
information-forest
notion.soForecasting Research Institute
forecastingresearch.org
The Case for Greenland
piratewires.com
Minimalist Portfolio
Minimalist Portfolio The most valuable thing simplicity gives you is focus. The most valuable thing focus gives you is the ability to actually figure things out. For a while, I bought whatever stocks seemed interesting or popular. Some went up, some didn’t. I didn’t learn much and it all felt k...
docs.google.com
Crypto-Powered Information Games
archetype.mirror.xyz