Lucas Kohorst

Slight aside here, talking about people being “familiar with” things, I find that super subject matter experts can sometimes be very bad at predicting the thing they’re an expert in. That is because they overweight their own expertise."

This information value is significant enough that people check prediction markets for real-time updates on events; some (e.g. The Base Rate Times, Polymarket, Kalshi) are building out media coverage and newsletters based on this data.