Lucas Kohorst
- A few more things to know: - Since 1988, prediction markets have beaten professional pollsters 74% of the time.[1] - In the corporate setting, prediction markets almost always beat expert forecasts.[2,3,4] - Polymarket is implemented as open-source smart contracts on a public blockchain. This means that they can't manipulate the matching engine.... See more
A Manipulator Can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy
Election Predictions as Martingales: An Arbitrage Approach
moses-response-to-power-broker
Robert Moses offers a critical response to Robert A. Caro's biography, disputing the portrayal of his public service, addressing inaccuracies, and defending his contributions to urban development in New York.
Grant Guide by Merge Club
Getting Nuked?
2005 Kenyon Commencement Address
David Foster Wallace's commencement address emphasizes the importance of awareness, choice, and how to think critically about everyday experiences, encouraging graduates to live consciously and meaningfully amidst life's challenges.
Geoengineering Affects You, Your Environment, and Your Loved Ones
Liquidity and Prediction Market Efficiency
The paper investigates the relationship between liquidity and market efficiency in prediction markets, revealing that increased liquidity may not enhance pricing accuracy and can even worsen it due to naive trading behavior.