Lucas Kohorst

How To (Not) Invest Life Changing Money

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Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities

The document discusses prediction market prices as reflections of average beliefs under different utility functions. Field data supports that these prices generally correspond with mean beliefs.

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So, you want to Auction?

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Where Open Phil staff are making personal donations in 2024 | Open Philanthropy

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2024 Geothermal Update - Austin Vernon's Blog

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