Lucas Kohorst

@lucas

by Aidan Murphy
x.com
Models vs. Markets: Forecasting the 2020 U.S. Election | The Journal of Prediction Markets
by Darrion Vinson
ubplj.org
The High-Return Activity of Raising Others’ Aspirations
by Tyler Cowen
marginalrevolution.com
1 highlight
Margin of Inefficiency in Prediction Markets
thesupermodel.com
The Information
by Yueqi Yang
theinformation.com
The Disappearance of an Internet Domain
by Gareth Edwards
every.to
A few more things to know: - Since 1988, prediction markets have beaten professional pollsters 74% of the time.[1] - In the corporate setting, prediction markets almost always beat expert forecasts.[2,3,4] - Polymarket is implemented as open-source smart contracts on a public blockchain. This means that they can't manipulate the matching engine.... See more
by Proph3t
x.com
The folly of making political prediction markets like Intrade illegal
by Reuters
reuters.com
1 highlight
Forecasting newsletter for September 2024: Political betting live in the US
by Nuño Sempere
open.substack.com
Inkling Markets Blog
blog.inklingmarkets.com

Models vs. Markets: Forecasting the 2020 U.S. Election | The Journal of Prediction Markets