Lucas Kohorst

@lucas

days @dcgco nights @adjacent___

kohor.st

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Nixon, NASA, And How The Federal Government Got Design

fastcompany.com

Syllabi

syllabi.directory

Talent Spotting in Crowd Prediction

The chapter explores methods for identifying skilled forecasters in crowd prediction, classifying skill correlates, and analyzing their effectiveness in improving aggregate forecasting accuracy.

gwern.net

Time Travelling Life Insurance Arbitrage / Welcome to Error Margin

errormargin.com

adly, Manifold does not produce particularly good predictions. In last year’s ACX contest, it performed worse than simply averaging predictions from the same number of people who took part in each market. Their calibration, while good by human standards, has a clear systematic bias towards predicting things will happen when they don’t (Yes bias).... See more

Robin • Manifold markets isn’t very good — EA Forum

The next evolution of serverless is stateful

Sunil Pai sunilpai.dev

Underdog Preparing To Use Kalshi, PMs For Risk Management

Brett Smiley ingame.com

Claude Fights Back

Scott Alexander open.substack.com

Lovable - The last piece of software

lovable.dev