Lucas Kohorst
@lucas
days @dcgco nights @adjacent___
Lucas Kohorst
kohor.st
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
The document discusses prediction market prices as reflections of average beliefs under different utility functions. Field data supports that these prices generally correspond with mean beliefs.
users.nber.org
Introducing Boring News
A daily series where we take three top stories from @Polymarket, explain the odds with AI, and deliver it straight to you on X.
Why Boring? Because it's just the odds and the AI-informed context. No sensationalism. No bias.
Dec 3: Assad,... See more
Packy McCormickx.comWhen Markets Beat
The text discusses the effectiveness of prediction markets, particularly the Iowa Electronic Markets, in forecasting election outcomes more accurately than traditional polls, while exploring underlying theories and debates surrounding their predictive capabilities.
mason.gmu.edu