Oftentimes with surprisingly little liquidity, prediction markets prove highly accurate and robust in the face of interference. The "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon ensures that these markets frequently outperform traditional forecasting tools like polls. For instance, the University of Iowa operates the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) as a research... See more
In the future, advances in AI will make most things we care about too cheap to meter. I expect most goods, services, and web content will be available without friction, cost, or ads. In order to create that abundance, I think the field as a whole has to do this.