This information value is significant enough that people check prediction markets for real-time updates on events; some (e.g. The Base Rate Times, Polymarket, Kalshi) are building out media coverage and newsletters based on this data.

Oftentimes with surprisingly little liquidity, prediction markets prove highly accurate and robust in the face of interference. The "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon ensures that these markets frequently outperform traditional forecasting tools like polls. For instance, the University of Iowa operates the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) as a research pro... See more

my office hours are OPEN what do you need feedback or advice on, what questions do you have, what secret trouble stirs thy breast

Seeing lots of new media companies being right now. I love it! However, be careful building generalized media. B2C media is a graveyard. - huffington post - buzzfeed - vice - complex - mic - mashable - ozy - quartz Build for everyone and you build for no one. Instead study B2B media. - industry dive - freight waves - the information - s... See more

@wanyeburkett Or by making them sign a Certificate of Unprofitable Degree (inspired from Matt Levine's "Certificate of Dumb Investment") https://t.co/shpDJZNpSJ