Lucas Kohorst
2005 Kenyon Commencement Address
David Foster Wallace's commencement address emphasizes the importance of awareness, choice, and how to think critically about everyday experiences, encouraging graduates to live consciously and meaningfully amidst life's challenges.
Geoengineering Affects You, Your Environment, and Your Loved Ones
Liquidity and Prediction Market Efficiency
The paper investigates the relationship between liquidity and market efficiency in prediction markets, revealing that increased liquidity may not enhance pricing accuracy and can even worsen it due to naive trading behavior.
- This information value is significant enough that people check prediction markets for real-time updates on events; some (e.g. The Base Rate Times, Polymarket, Kalshi) are building out media coverage and newsletters based on this data.
from Kalshi’s Court Victory: A Turning Point for Prediction Markets? by Mohit Agarwal
- Oftentimes with surprisingly little liquidity, prediction markets prove highly accurate and robust in the face of interference. The "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon ensures that these markets frequently outperform traditional forecasting tools like polls. For instance, the University of Iowa operates the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) as a research pro... See more
from Kalshi’s Court Victory: A Turning Point for Prediction Markets? by Mohit Agarwal
AI Grant
Permissionless Capital, Global Consensus and New Markets
Mainshares - Why SMB Investing · Mainshares
