Lucas Kohorst
- A good example of this is using prediction markets to reduce LVR. Prediction markets have incredible capital efficiency for forecasting - even $10K of capital is often enough for high accuracy. Prediction markets should be efficient enough in aggregate that they can be used as on-chain oracles - incorporate exogenous price sources & prevent LPs fro... See more
- @mattyglesias A group of public health "experts" successfully urged Pfizer to delay reporting their results until after the election. A bit of an underreported story. https://t.co/8KcfmxIa89
- The facts that (a) an AI somewhere could in principle do this task better, and (b) this task is no longer an economically rewarded element of a global economy, don’t seem to me to matter very much.
from Machines of Loving Grace by Dario Amodei
- A few more things to know: - Since 1988, prediction markets have beaten professional pollsters 74% of the time.[1] - In the corporate setting, prediction markets almost always beat expert forecasts.[2,3,4] - Polymarket is implemented as open-source smart contracts on a public blockchain. This means that they can't manipulate the matching engine.... See more
- Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Goog
from Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google by Bo Cowgill
Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google
- you can be more informed by reading the news and the charts, than by reading either one alone.