@NathanpmYoung @ManifoldMarkets yup, agreed. the root of the problem seems to be a difficulty in finding uninformed flow that doesn’t come from degen gamblers. cf @hoke_t ‘s great essay: https://t.co/yQwXkRjrLh

In a prediction market, it is relatively more difficult: maybe you are trading with someone who has natural exposure to a Russian invasion and is just looking for a hedge, but more likely your counterparty is, like, a guy who speaks Russian and is in dozens of Telegram groups waiting for just the right moment to trade against your resting order.

If you have time to consume, you have time to create.

This information value is significant enough that people check prediction markets for real-time updates on events; some (e.g. The Base Rate Times, Polymarket, Kalshi) are building out media coverage and newsletters based on this data.

Seeing lots of new media companies being right now. I love it! However, be careful building generalized media. B2C media is a graveyard. - huffington post - buzzfeed - vice - complex - mic - mashable - ozy - quartz Build for everyone and you build for no one. Instead study B2B media. - industry dive - freight waves - the information - s... See more

webpages should connect to each other like rooms

As desire for single-origin coffees spread, shops would sell 10 or even 20 different coffees. With only two or three brewed coffees for sale, café goers wouldn’t be able to sample most of the offerings

WASHINGTON - The Pentagon (news - web sites) is setting up a stock-market style system in which investors would bet on terror attacks, assassinations and other events in the Middle East. Defense officials hope to gain intelligence and useful predictions while investors who guessed right would win profits.