A few more things to know: - Since 1988, prediction markets have beaten professional pollsters 74% of the time.[1] - In the corporate setting, prediction markets almost always beat expert forecasts.[2,3,4] - Polymarket is implemented as open-source smart contracts on a public blockchain. This means that they can't manipulate the matching engine.... See more

he previously mentioned research finds that an investor with $100,000 in an equity mutual fund has the equivalent of a $2,500 bet on the election already.

The top-performing miners in September were those who hedged early. Miners who hedged USD revenues in April earned 40% more, and those who hedged Bitcoin production earned 27% more.

This information value is significant enough that people check prediction markets for real-time updates on events; some (e.g. The Base Rate Times, Polymarket, Kalshi) are building out media coverage and newsletters based on this data.

Oftentimes with surprisingly little liquidity, prediction markets prove highly accurate and robust in the face of interference. The "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon ensures that these markets frequently outperform traditional forecasting tools like polls. For instance, the University of Iowa operates the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) as a research pro... See more

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Seeing lots of new media companies being right now. I love it! However, be careful building generalized media. B2C media is a graveyard. - huffington post - buzzfeed - vice - complex - mic - mashable - ozy - quartz Build for everyone and you build for no one. Instead study B2B media. - industry dive - freight waves - the information - s... See more