This information value is significant enough that people check prediction markets for real-time updates on events; some (e.g. The Base Rate Times, Polymarket, Kalshi) are building out media coverage and newsletters based on this data.

Oftentimes with surprisingly little liquidity, prediction markets prove highly accurate and robust in the face of interference. The "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon ensures that these markets frequently outperform traditional forecasting tools like polls. For instance, the University of Iowa operates the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) as a research pro... See more

my office hours are OPEN what do you need feedback or advice on, what questions do you have, what secret trouble stirs thy breast

Seeing lots of new media companies being right now. I love it! However, be careful building generalized media. B2C media is a graveyard. - huffington post - buzzfeed - vice - complex - mic - mashable - ozy - quartz Build for everyone and you build for no one. Instead study B2B media. - industry dive - freight waves - the information - s... See more

@wanyeburkett Or by making them sign a Certificate of Unprofitable Degree (inspired from Matt Levine's "Certificate of Dumb Investment") https://t.co/shpDJZNpSJ

We are in full compliance with the law, we issue a NOTAM to the FAA before we launch our balloons and file a report to NOAA once a year and this falls under the Weather Modification Act which includes things like cloud seeding using silver iodide to make it rain. EPA does not regulate SO2 emissions in the stratosphere. Thank you so much for your co... See more

Sports betting legalization reduces net investments of households by nearly 14% overall. $1 of sports betting reduces net investment by over $2, increases credit card debt, but has no effect on participation in lotteries or other online gambling outlets. https://t.co/k8JRSvj6Da... See more

Obsessed with the aesthetic of this 1975 brochure on an early iteration of Fedwire

Welfare should be replaced with a direct cash payment to anyone who chooses to give up their right to vote, scaled inversely to which vote you’re giving up (city highest, federal lowest)