Lucas Kohorst
- he previously mentioned research finds that an investor with $100,000 in an equity mutual fund has the equivalent of a $2,500 bet on the election already.
from The folly of making political prediction markets like Intrade illegal by Reuters
Election Predictions as Martingales: An Arbitrage Approach
- The top-performing miners in September were those who hedged early. Miners who hedged USD revenues in April earned 40% more, and those who hedged Bitcoin production earned 27% more.
Grant Guide by Merge Club
Getting Nuked?
Geoengineering Affects You, Your Environment, and Your Loved Ones
- This information value is significant enough that people check prediction markets for real-time updates on events; some (e.g. The Base Rate Times, Polymarket, Kalshi) are building out media coverage and newsletters based on this data.
from Kalshi’s Court Victory: A Turning Point for Prediction Markets? by Mohit Agarwal
- Oftentimes with surprisingly little liquidity, prediction markets prove highly accurate and robust in the face of interference. The "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon ensures that these markets frequently outperform traditional forecasting tools like polls. For instance, the University of Iowa operates the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) as a research pro... See more
from Kalshi’s Court Victory: A Turning Point for Prediction Markets? by Mohit Agarwal
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