Lucas Kohorst

The ants and the grasshopper — LessWrong

Why I'm not (exactly) an Effective Altruist

against the dark forest

GitHub - gaiaus/2024-us-presidential-general-election

Pair raises $500K, preparing to rain bitcoins on undergrads | The Tech

Election Predictions as Martingales: An Arbitrage Approach

Michael Lewis’s Blind Side—Asterisk

The mysterious life and death of Intrade’s CEO

When Markets Beat

The text discusses the effectiveness of prediction markets, particularly the Iowa Electronic Markets, in forecasting election outcomes more accurately than traditional polls, while exploring underlying theories and debates surrounding their predictive capabilities.