Lucas Kohorst
- he previously mentioned research finds that an investor with $100,000 in an equity mutual fund has the equivalent of a $2,500 bet on the election already.
from The folly of making political prediction markets like Intrade illegal by Reuters
A Manipulator Can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy
moses-response-to-power-broker
Robert Moses offers a critical response to Robert A. Caro's biography, disputing the portrayal of his public service, addressing inaccuracies, and defending his contributions to urban development in New York.
- The top-performing miners in September were those who hedged early. Miners who hedged USD revenues in April earned 40% more, and those who hedged Bitcoin production earned 27% more.
2005 Kenyon Commencement Address
David Foster Wallace's commencement address emphasizes the importance of awareness, choice, and how to think critically about everyday experiences, encouraging graduates to live consciously and meaningfully amidst life's challenges.
Liquidity and Prediction Market Efficiency
The paper investigates the relationship between liquidity and market efficiency in prediction markets, revealing that increased liquidity may not enhance pricing accuracy and can even worsen it due to naive trading behavior.
- This information value is significant enough that people check prediction markets for real-time updates on events; some (e.g. The Base Rate Times, Polymarket, Kalshi) are building out media coverage and newsletters based on this data.
from Kalshi’s Court Victory: A Turning Point for Prediction Markets? by Mohit Agarwal
- Oftentimes with surprisingly little liquidity, prediction markets prove highly accurate and robust in the face of interference. The "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon ensures that these markets frequently outperform traditional forecasting tools like polls. For instance, the University of Iowa operates the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) as a research pro... See more
from Kalshi’s Court Victory: A Turning Point for Prediction Markets? by Mohit Agarwal
DIY Geoengineering
The text outlines a DIY approach to geoengineering, specifically using weather balloons to release reflective particles, aiming to reduce Earth's temperature and combat climate change.
by Luke Iseman