Lucas Kohorst
- This looks like a pretty reasonable plot of P(Russia invades Ukraine) over time. Except that, as was subsequently revealed, the image is in fact an edited version of a screenshot of this Manifold question, wherein the original price graph has been replaced with that of front-month Brent crude futures1 over the same time period. As it turns out, the... See more
from Let there be flow - Tanner Hoke by Tanner Hoke
Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Koch Industries
The document examines the efficiency of corporate prediction markets at Google, Ford, and Koch Industries, and finds that despite some inefficiencies, these markets perform reasonably well.
by Bo Cowgill
new VC funds at / below $200M in size by Shai Goldman @shaig - Google Drive
- introduction to blockspace
from Blockspace: An Introduction with Chris Dixon | The Generalist by Chris Dixon
Memo on search (August 2022)
This document is meant to summarize the thoughts I had about search and related topics in August 2022. I think that this space is interesting and I can see glimmers of a product that I want to spend all of my time in (as a user!) but I can’t seem to locate the real value of the tool or a strategy to achieve it.
The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective
The document discusses the historical evolution of political betting markets across various countries and time periods, highlighting the long-standing tradition of wagering on political events throughout history.
- A few months ago I was at a conference where Robin Hanson spoke about prediction markets.[1] He argued that given how much of companies' outcomes are driven by who they choose to hire, and how non-rigorous the process of selecting employees and revisiting those selections is, there's a literal trillion-dollar opportunity in getting it right. Predic... See more
from How Many Trillion-Dollar Companies Should There Be? by Byrne Hobart
Folklore Public Database of Curation
Sheet1 July 05, 2023 at 07:48AM,OUR OWN TRUTH. In the absence of trustworthy institutions, society has retreated into self-validating rubrics of meaning-making. We now attempt to posit anti-conspiratorial truth in a vacuum of credibility.,
forecasting.pdf
