Lucas Kohorst
forecasting.pdf
- As desire for single-origin coffees spread, shops would sell 10 or even 20 different coffees. With only two or three brewed coffees for sale, café goers wouldn’t be able to sample most of the offerings
from How pour-over coffee got good - Works in Progress by Nick Whitaker
- The solar panel is wizardry manifest. It literally prints energy from free shit that falls out of the sky.
from Solar will get too cheap to connect to the power grid. by Ben James
Memo on search (August 2022)
This document is meant to summarize the thoughts I had about search and related topics in August 2022. I think that this space is interesting and I can see glimmers of a product that I want to spend all of my time in (as a user!) but I can’t seem to locate the real value of the tool or a strategy to achieve it.
- The precision that makes them so theoretically useful is itself a curse for their liquidity, so prediction market evangelists should welcome all new traders with open arms.
from Let there be flow - Tanner Hoke by Tanner Hoke
- In a prediction market, it is relatively more difficult: maybe you are trading with someone who has natural exposure to a Russian invasion and is just looking for a hedge, but more likely your counterparty is, like, a guy who speaks Russian and is in dozens of Telegram groups waiting for just the right moment to trade against your resting order.
from Let there be flow - Tanner Hoke by Tanner Hoke
- This looks like a pretty reasonable plot of P(Russia invades Ukraine) over time. Except that, as was subsequently revealed, the image is in fact an edited version of a screenshot of this Manifold question, wherein the original price graph has been replaced with that of front-month Brent crude futures1 over the same time period. As it turns out, the... See more
from Let there be flow - Tanner Hoke by Tanner Hoke
Folklore Public Database of Curation
Sheet1 July 05, 2023 at 07:48AM,OUR OWN TRUTH. In the absence of trustworthy institutions, society has retreated into self-validating rubrics of meaning-making. We now attempt to posit anti-conspiratorial truth in a vacuum of credibility.,
Forecasting is often vibes. But so is expertise
Often experts apply their knowledge in unfamiliar or uncertain situations. “How much will this policy decrease child poverty” “Will Biden leave in the next 3 days” “Will I feel better after taking painkillers?” “How much will sea levels rise?”
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
The document discusses prediction market prices as reflections of average beliefs under different utility functions. Field data supports that these prices generally correspond with mean beliefs.
